India in the whirlpool of American interests

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to India and US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s visit to China have highlighted US geopolitical thinking in the Indo-Pacific region.

Blinken called on India to be serious about the rights of minorities, raising the issue of human rights. However, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told Blinken that India was managing minorities differently from the United States and that the United States should not object.

However, various media outlets quoted Blinken as saying that the US should not raise the issue of its treatment of blacks and other minorities. The Biden administration has indicated that it will not raise human rights issues if India becomes a strategic ally of the United States.

In other words, the US seems to have made a policy of raising the issue of human rights in India along with the US geopolitics of putting India at the forefront of encircling China in the Indo-Pacific region. The United States has said it will continue to criticize China for its treatment of Uighur Muslims, while America has also criticized India for persecuting minorities and Dalits.

India seems to be in a difficult position to bear the criticism of the United States and to cooperate militarily with China to lay siege to it. After all, India has to obey the United States, which is much more powerful economically and militarily than it is.

The issue of quads has also been raised seriously during Blinken’s visit. India and the United States agree that the quad is a key to stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

But on closer inspection, India is not very optimistic about the quad. US Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said in talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin last week that the two countries would face stiff competition but did not seek a military confrontation with China.

What this indicates is that even if a literal war breaks out between Washington and Beijing, a real war of arms is unlikely. The United States will send warships or aircraft carriers to the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.

The United States sent 25 F-22 fighter jets from military bases in Alaska and Hawaii to Guam three years ago to try to send a message to China. But according to military experts, these are symbolic steps and do not really reflect the commitment to fight.

Blinken himself has used the three terms competition, cooperation and confrontation in relation to China. He emphasized the need for competition, cooperation as much as possible and confrontation only when absolutely necessary. That is, the confrontation with China is America’s lowest priority.

Director and Senior Fellow of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, a renowned think tank in the United States. According to Chong Li, the Biden administration’s policy is to cooperate and cooperate with China in areas where US interests are served. Although the Trump administration has sought to sever all ties with China towards the end of its term, Lee says the Biden administration has signaled cooperation in areas where it is needed. Biden himself said the relationship between the United States and China was rooted in stiff competition.

The United States has no reason to confront China. China has not taken any steps to endanger the American mainland. Such a move would have forced the United States to take military action in defense.

Michael Beckley, an associate professor of political science at Tufts University in the United States, argued in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine that the United States was not ready for a superpower rivalry with China because it had spent its resources on the war on terror. So for now, the United States does not seem to be at war with China.

Although the United States does not face a strategic threat from China, India is a country bordering China. Therefore, there is no room for error between the two countries. Even if talks are held at the military level, it is clear that the Chinese army will not back down, so India’s risk to China will always remain.

According to Indian military expert Praveen Sahni, the Tibet Autonomous Region is the permanent residence and base of military operations of the Western Theater Command of China, and its sole purpose is to wage war with India. In this case, the risk to India from China will remain. By the end of 2023, China is projected to launch a war against the Indian military based on artificial intelligence.

In its annual report to Congress last year, the Pentagon said the Chinese military was moving from information-based warfare to artificial intelligence warfare. Based on artificial intelligence, cloud computing, data analytics, quantum information and unmanned systems, this war will result in very little human damage to China but heavy casualties to the enemy.

According to Sahni, unfortunately the Indian Army has not been able to adopt this latest concept of warfare and is using the traditional tactics of ground and air strikes. In that case, he says, the war against China will only last for a very short time.

In a possible war between China and India, the US is unlikely to provide the expected assistance to India. In an article published in The Washington Post, Indian journalist Barkha Dutt wrote that India has become more dependent on the United States than necessary, expressing concern in India’s strategic circles. An Indian government official said the United States would not rescue India if there was a war with China.

Long Xingchun, chairman of the Changtu Institute of World Affairs, wrote in the Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, that New Delhi should understand that Washington will not fight a war for India. He asserted that the United States would provide political and diplomatic assistance to India and provide only a small amount of weapons and intelligence.

It is also clear that the US has made India the frontrunner in the geopolitical competition with China.

Therefore, the US strategy seems to be to gain geopolitical advantage by putting its partner countries in the Indo-Pacific region. By becoming a part of this game of the United States, India has inadvertently endangered the region.

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